Monday, June 05, 2006

This is the week see if ExPat's bold prediction about The Da Vinci Code

ends up being true or not. In case you missed it or forgot, he made the bold proclamation that the movie would not be commercially successful and even went on to the specific prediction of saying it would not be in the top five movies in it's fourth week.

Well, this is it's 4th week right now. And there certainly is a chance he could be right. The Da Vinci Code was down to #4 this past week and this week marks the openings for both Cars and the Omen, which should both have big opening weeks.

I'm still thinking there is a chance he may not be right though. X-Men 3 actually showed a much bigger second week drop than Da Vinci did, the Break Up was in it's opening weekend, Over the Hedge beat Da Vinci by less than 1.5 million (and will certainly be the most adversely affected by Cars opening), and Da Vinci did still make almost $20 million this past weekend. So it's no guarantee it will drop out of the top 5.

In fact, I think the only guarantee we have right now is that ExPat's general premise is wrong. With over $581 million already made worldwide, the Da Vinci Code is already at #32 in the ALL TIME rankings for worldwide grosses. And even given normal drop off rates, that clearly puts it on pace to make over $700 million, be a top 25 all time grossing movie (which is better than Passion and three of the six Star Wars movies), and since it only cost $125 million to make, that clearly makes it "commercially successful".

P.S. It's also the week for the start of the World Cup! So really, none of us should go watch any of these movies, because if you have to be watching something this weekend - it should be soccer! The World Cup doesn't match March Madness or even the World Series for my excitement level - but it's up there and it gets four years to build up the anticipation instead of one. One blog I read regularly has got the right level of excitement for it already with their Daily Cup coverage. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar level of postings about it here on Page 132.