Thursday, May 11, 2006

Why the Da Vinci Code won't be commercially successful

The Da Vinci Code movie is coming out here in the UK a week from tomorrow. The adverts are everywhere. The newspapers are all afire with "controversy" and "rebuttal". My colleagues have been asking if people are going to see it. Church friends are wondering the same thing...

I have no interest in seeing it. I won't be going, unless I am invited by a non-Christian friend who agrees to a cup of coffee afterward. (I'm looking at you genesysx!)

In fact, that is why I think the Da Vinci Code will not be commercially successful. Don't get me wrong, it will make money. It has Tom Hanks. However, like MI: III, I don't see it being the summer blockbuster.

As near as I can tell, there are 3 types of people in this world.

  1. Those that have read Da Vinci Code and don't think a movie will do it justice.
  2. Those that have read it and want to see Tom Hanks' version.
  3. Those that for one reason or another have not read the Da Vinci Code.

Let's break down those groups as a movie going audience. The first group will not be going to the movie because they don't think it can be as good as the book.

The second group will go, but will say, as people always do, that the movie wasn't as good as the book. This will create the conventional wisdom that the movie isn't that good.

The third group of people will either not go because they have no interest in it (like me), or will wait for people's reactions. Since the reaction will almost certainly be overwhelmingly "it isn't as good as the book.", those folks will wait for the DVD.

My prediction: The Da Vinci Code opens to phenomenal numbers on the first weekend. By week 4, The Da Vinci Code won't be in the top 5 movies.