Wednesday, June 07, 2006

In Defense of my Da Vinci Code prediction

gurufrisbee has run me through the ringer on my prediction about the eventual fate of The Da Vinci Code. I've been meaning to take the fight to him, but life has been very hectic. After taking a few body blows, it is time for me to hit back.

First off, let me come clean. I tried to have it both ways. I wanted controversy and rational thought. The title of my post was "Why the Da Vinci Code won't be commercially successful". I intentionally chose a very inflammatory title to try and create a blogostorm. I was hoping to generate a lot of comments and traffic. I was more tabloid than broadsheet, so sue me. I do recognize that by choosing an obviously verifiable claim, I set myself to be wrong.

However, in the same post I did make some other more substantial claims. I said, "Don't get me wrong, it will make money. It has Tom Hanks. However, like MI: III, I don't see it being the summer blockbuster." and that was really the general premise at the heart of my post. I wanted the focus on how The Da Vinci Code wouldn't dominate the theatres this summer like many in the Christian sub-culture feared (hoped?). I stated that due to the nature of the audience, the numbers would drop off quickly.

The box-office receipts have borne that out. It opened to $77 million in its first weekend. In Week 2, The Da Vinci Code dropped to just under $35 million. A decrease of 55.8% over the previous week. In Week 3, the Da Vinci Code dropped to number 4 at the box office with a take of 18.6 million. That was another decrease of 45.3%. This weekend is weekend number 4 and with the opening of Omen and Cars, there is a good chance that The Da Vinci Code's will continue its precipitous drop. It is certainly following the pattern I foresaw.

I predicted that The Da Vinci Code "opens to phenomenal numbers on the first weekend. By week 4, The Da Vinci Code won't be in the top 5 movies." I clearly underestimated the opening weekend, but I've been right ever since. This weekend is the crucial test for my general theory. Stay tuned...

If you are thinking about going, can I remind you that The Da Vinci Code is a bad movie that deserves a pass. Go see X-Men 3, genesysx says it is a very good movie on the big screen.

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