Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Problems for Hillary in the Michigan "win"

The Michigan Democratic primary last night was unimportant for delegates to the convention, but it did show two very interesting results.

The first is that she clearly doesn't have a lot of support, even in the Democratic party. She only earned 55% of the vote in a virtually uncontested race. Uncommitted earned 40% of the vote. I know that turnout was light, but 55% in an uncontested race doesn't give me a lot of confidence that Hillary can win a contested race. Is she really as electable as some of her supporters say she is?

Second, according to exit polls, Hillary won less than 1/4 of the African-American vote. In South Carolina, where African-Americans make up about 50% of the Democratic electorate, Hillary has to split that vote with Obama or she'll lose in South Carolina.

Should Obama win Nevada on Saturday, where he has a lot of labor support and organization, and then South Carolina next week, he'll be on a roll going into Super Duper Tuesday.

I'm not banging on Hillary because I don't like her. I've never thought she would be the nominee. She has never gotten greater than 50% of a national poll even though she is so well known. I just think that should she fail to win in Nevada and South Carolina, maybe it is time for her to step aside and allow Obama (or Edwards) to claim the nomination. Then the Democrats will look like an organized and solid party, while the Republicans flail about choosing their nominee. Thus helping Democratic chances to win the White House in 2008.