Monday, November 06, 2006

Monday night predictions

I figure that since I'm a self-appointed pundit on politics, I should put my reputation out on the line and set out my predictions. I've been doing a lot of reading, but I'm certainly not an expert. You might want to check out Chris Bowers' predictions, Chris Cillizza's predictions and Joseph Knippenberg's predictions for people that probably know better than me. Remember my buddy in the trenches who had wise words and predicted a Democratic gain of 19-24 seats.

House races
The Democrats need 15 seats to change hands. From the last minute surge in the polls, that seem to be countering the glum news over the weekend, I predict a gain of 30 seats for the Democrats. Twice what they need and a strong majority in the House. A gain that size would be an overwhelming avalanche.

Unfortunately, my old CD, the WA-08, will return David Reichert (R) as their representative.

Senate races

CT Lieberman
MD Cardin
MI Stabenow
MN Klobuchar
MO McCaskill
MT Tester
NJ Menendez
OH Brown
PA Casey
RI Whitehouse
TN Corker
VA Webb
WA Cantwell

Cardin and Menenedez will benefit from being the GOTV effort in Democratic states. Tester will defeat Burns, despite a last minute surge. McCaskill has run a hard fought race and will squeak one through. This is the race that will most likely end up in court. Corker wins for the same reason Cardin and Menenedez win, but with the red state advantage. And Webb wins because George Allen is a privileged boy trying to be a good ol' boy. We already have one of those in the White House, we don't need any in the Senate.

That is a gain of 6 and just enough to give the Democrats control of the Senate.

Republicans currently control most governorships, with 28 of the nation's 50 governors being members of the GOP. Yet, under the leadership of Bill Richardson as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, Democrats will take over as the dominant party at the state level. Democrats have 3 governorships that are considered competitive, but they will hold them all. Republicans will almost certainly lose New York, Ohio, Massachusetts, Arkansas, and Colorado. Democrats have put in all the resources they had, but will only take 2 of the 4 more contested seats. Democrats will win in Maryland and Nevada, but lose in Idaho and Minnesota.

That leaves Democrats with 29 of the 50 governors and the majority.


I think it will be a very good night to be a Democrat. I'm not sure it will be a blue tidal wave sweeping the country, but it will be a difficult night for the Republicans and will certainly usher in the lame duck era of George Bush (if it hasn't started already). On the state level, a rise of governors is an excellent farm system for future federal races.

The real key is what will Wednesday look like? Will our leaders lead or continue to divide?

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