Sunday, June 10, 2007

You know I love gurufrisbee, right? But he's just 100% wrong about this, so I have to take him out behind the woodshed

gurufrisbee was able to visit The Old Man's place and actually view the internet as a real adult this weekend. He left his bomb of a comment, that I just can't let go. It probably isn't fair because he won't be able to see my response, but I just can't let it go..

gurufrisbee said,
"Most voters don't really prefer governors to senators - it's much more about the individuals and specifics of the races themselves than a supposed broad preference of governors to become presidents over senators."

This is a strange assertion. Let's go back to 1900 and see what the voters have decided.
PresidentYearsPosition immediately prior to presidency
Theodore Roosevelt1901-1909governor
William Taft1909-1913Secretary of War
Woodrow Wilson1913-1921governor
Warren Harding1921-1923senator
Calvin Coolidge1923-1929vice-president
Herbert Clark Hoover1929-1933Commerce Secretary
Franklin Delano Roosevelt1933-1945governor
Harry S. Truman1945-1953vice-president
Dwight Eisenhower1953-1961President of Columbia University
John Fitzgerald Kennedy1961-1963senator
Lyndon Baines Johnson1963-1969vice-president
Richard Milhous Nixon1969-1974lawyer (and former vice-president)
Gerald Rudolph Ford1974-1977vice-president, but unelected
Jimmy Carter1977-1981governor
Ronald Wilson Reagan1981-1989governor
George Herbert Walker Bush1989-1993vice-president
William Clinton1993-2001governor
George Walker Bush2001-governor

7 governors and 2 senators. Either senators have horrible personalities or the public likes executives to become the chief executive. And as the video below shows, since 1961 senators are 0-40 in attempts at the Oval Office.

Again gurufrisbee asserts,
"And sadly, most voters don't care that much about the difference in experience that Richardson has over the Big Three. The reality is that such experience is really only valuable IF it leads to name recognition, which we can already see it doesn't with Richardson."

Here's the rub. The more people here about Richardson and his experience, the more they like him. His improving poll numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he has been campaigning exclusively and putting up ads show that people like what they here. Here's one voter that was impressed with Richardson's experience. As the video argues, he can get more name recognition. There is still 7 months until the Iowa caucuses.

gurufrisbee incorrectly states,
"And the Clinton comparison fails (which is a bad thing for Richardson, because Clinton is the best president we've had in the last 30 years - BY FAR), because the situations are so different. There was no clear frontrunner and Clinton's numbers early left him in the middle of a muddled pack of equals. Richardson's numbers put him a distant fourth behind three strong candidates."

Your memory fails you, gurufrisbee...Bill Clinton finished third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. He didn't win a primary until New York which was actually deep into the process. However, he got the "Comeback Kid" nickname and gained all the momentum. All of the front runners ran out of money and dropped out of the race. Harkin won Iowa (didn't count tho - he's from there), Tsongas won New Hampshire, Jerry Brown pulled a surprise and won Colorado, then it all unraveled from there and Clinton rolled forward after that.

Is Richardson's task difficult, but recent history says it isn't impossible.

gurufrisbee finishes with,
"Bill Richardson's ONLY chance of becoming president is to sign on as a VP, serve for 8 years as such, and run as THE frontrunner in 2016. Beyond that, you're just dreaming an impossible dream Expat."

Again you are wrong. While 5 vice-presidents have been elected to the presidency in the 20th century, only 2 were elected after their predecessor served 2 (or more) terms. Just ask Al Gore how difficult it is to get elected after 8 years of a successful president. America likes change and we fear rule by one party for too long. Being a vice-president is one heartbeat away from relevancy and that's it.

guru, I'm not dreaming the impossible dream. It is a difficult dream and those are the only dreams worth having.