Tuesday, May 16, 2006

2008 is not necessarily Hillary

gurufrisbee challenged me to find something or someone that doesn't think Hillary Clinton is a shoe-in for the 2008 Democratic nomination for president.

I'm up to that challenge. In fact, it was a lot easier than I thought it was.

First, let me start with words from incredibly powerful and popular blogger Joshua Micah Marshall, "I don't think Hillary is anywhere near as strong as she looks or as people seem to think she is."

Equally influential blogger, Andrew Sullivan has started some discussion about why Hillary would be a bad nominee. He lists a few reasons:
  1. Catch No 1 is that Americans, by and large, don’t like her and don’t want to intensify the culture wars that have already ripped the country apart.
  2. The Democratic left also suspects Hillary
  3. In a Hillary presidency we would essentially have an unconstitutional third term for Bill as co-president, with all the psycho-drama and mellifluous, undisciplined talent that implies.

Andrew Sullivan is currently leading a discussion that Al Gore might be a better option. He even lays out The Case for Gore.

Josh Micah Marshall concurs; "Andrew Sullivan just published an email from a reader who says it'll be Al Gore in 2008 for the Democrats, not Hillary. I could see it. I could totally see it...And Gore would be formidable."

It won't be Gore, but that people are already talking about alternatives to Hillary may mean she has peaked. So what do you think? Is Hillary a shoe-in for the 08 nomination? If so, why? If no, why not and who would you put your money on? I'm planning on getting a job in the Richardson/Warner administration. ;-)

Update: guru wants a survey or poll that shows someone other than Hillary as the top contender. Well, I've found two...Hotline has Edwards Wins South Carolina E-Straw Poll and MyDD has an October 2005 straw poll with Wesley Clark as the winner. Neither is impressive, but there is some additional evidence that Clinton doesn't have the entire thing wrapped up.

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