Monday, June 09, 2008

Veepstakes = depends on the strategy

I'm waiting with baited breath to see if Obama picks Richardson as his Veep. Each morning I wake up hoping to get some "breaking news", but I know I must wait.

I did talk with someone here in DC that works with the campaign (usual caveat - those in the know aren't talking and those talking aren't in the know) and he said the campaign wanted to pick someone before the 4th of July holiday so folks are talking about it over their picnics. This also gives them time to start voter registration drives in targeted areas based upon the geography of the VP.

History has shown us that VPs don't always bring the expected Geography along with them. Edwards couldn't deliver any Southern states. Lieberman was unable to help Gore in Florida in 2000. Jack Kemp didn't help the Republicans in the NorthEast at all in 1996.

But let's play the game anyway, since it appears that is what Obama's folks are doing. With Clinton's strong endorsement on Saturday, female voters will probably come back into the fold. So that lowers the prospects of a female VP like Sebelius (my "favorite" for months), Napolitano or McCaskill.

Now it is about regional politics.

Obama has to decide. Will he contest the South and West or Appalachia?

If he contests the South and the West, his best bets are either Richardson or Gov. Kaine from VA.

If he contests Appalachia, then he'll probably go with Gov. Rendell or Gov. Strickland.

But Obama isn't giving away his strategy just yet. He claimed victory in his backyard of the Midwest. His first major rally was in Virginia - a state in play under either strategy. He took a few days off, but now is headed to North Carolina - again another state in play under either strategy - before heading to Missouri (MidWest again).

The other stops haven't been announced yet. Look for them to show a key peak into his strategy. If he campaigns in Pennsylvania and Ohio, he's leaning Appalachia. If instead, he goes to Georgia and Colorado, then the South-West strategy is the plan. Of course, over the next 2 weeks, he could visit all 4 and leave us in the dark.

That's my 2 cents on the Veepstakes. What are yours?