Wednesday, November 21, 2007

"Clinton Slips as Richardson Gains Momentum."

I has been a good week for the Richardson campaign. The Governor got rave reviews for his debate performance. Then, recent polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire have shown a solid and sustained upward surge in support.

In fact, the news has been so exciting lately that Dave Contarino, the campaign manager, sent out this e-mail earlier today.
I hadn't planned on any more e-mails before the holiday, but one of our volunteers in New Hampshire sent me this link from a television station in Manchester and I wanted to pass it along:

WMUR poll

First of all, I love the headline: "Clinton Slips as Richardson Gains Momentum."

But what it shows is even more important. It says that Bill Richardson has "made the most headway" of any of the Democratic candidates and has doubled his support in New Hampshire since the summer. He is now statistically even with John Edwards and closing in on Senator Obama.

It also featured a nice quote from the Governor:

"I have campaigned everywhere, shook so many hands and visited so many New Hampshire towns," Richardson said. "I love doing it, but when you see the fruits of your labor producing momentum, that's where I want to be."

Richardson said he thinks voters are making the connection that he's qualified to bring change to the country.

"What's happening in New Hampshire is they are seeing me as a candidate who has serious experience -- as a governor, as a diplomat and as a secretary of energy," Richardson said. "That I've been able to bring change."

But perhaps the most important number in the poll is how many New Hampshire voters still don't know who they're going to vote for in the primary: a whopping 47%!

That's a huge number. And it supports the point we've been talking about for months. No matter what the pundits say, this race is still wide open.

I'm sure you're thinking more about tomorrow than next January right now. But as somebody who has played a big role in creating this momentum, I thought you'd like to know about it before you started your holiday.

I'm heading back to New Mexico tonight to be with my family but let me wish you a Happy Thanksgiving from everyone in the campaign!

All the best,

And all this positive news has John Nichols over at The Nation saying, "NH PRIMARY: KEEP AN EYE ON RICHARDSON...". The key graft is:
And then there is Richardson, who has been campaigning aggressively in New Hampshire as an anti-war candidate -- promising to bring all U.S. troops home from Iraq in short order.

In September, Richardson was at 6 percent. Now, he is at 12 percent.

That's a dramatic jump when the two CNN/WMUR polls are compared. But it appears to be the continuation of a pattern of improvement for Richardson that becomes clearer when the Boston Globe survey from earlier this month is factored in. That survey showed the New Mexico governor moving from 6 percent in September to 10 percent.

So we've got two polls tracking an uptick for Richardson from 6 percent to 10 percent to 12 percent.

If the pattern holds, the New Mexican will easily overtake Edwards and could begin closing in on Obama by the time New Hampshire holds its first in the nation primary.

It is worth noting that, according to the polls, Richardson is now viewed as more experienced than either Obama or Edwards by the New Hampshire voters. His numbers are dramatically up in other categories, as well, especially on measures of trust -- the New Mexican now leads Clinton in this category.

Richardson's move into double digits in New Hampshire parallels his under-covered rise in the first caucus state of Iowa. While much of the discussion about recent polls from that state has focused on the news that Obama has moved narrowly ahead of Clinton -- they are actually in a statistical tie -- some of the most interesting movement in the first-caucus state has been toward Richardson, who is now at 11 percent.
Richardson has a long way to go to win the nomination, but he is the only candidate moving in the right direction. What more do you need to hear to cast your support behind him?