Monday, July 16, 2007

Bill Richardson - Likely to Win Iowa 2008 says USA Election Polls

We are going to go out on a limb six months in advance of the Iowa Caucus to predict that Bill Richardson will win the state of Iowa in this election cycle.

Bill Richardson was at 1.0% in both Iowa and New Hampshire six months ago. Now he is hovering around double digits.

USA Election Polls shows that Richardson does extremely well among the most likely caucus voters (also borne out by the poll where Richardson finished second among those that actually attended the house parties)

USA Election Polls also site previous history shows that perceived front runners going into Iowa don't do well.
Before the Iowa Caucus in 2004, it was generally believed that Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were the front runners. But they came in third and fourth in the state respectively. John Kerry and John Edwards were voted in #1 and #2. Iowa voters do not look to the polls to help them to determine who to vote for. They vote based on the issues and the candidates themselves.

They do recognize that a lot can happen, but time is on Richardson's side.

But time is on Richardson's side.

Richardson is committed to a positive campaign and favorability ratings go a long way.
  • He is a very likeable candidate and few in the Democratic party would attack him. He is also not likely to be attacked because he would never be considered as a top tier candidate until after Iowa and he wins.
  • The more familiar voters are with him, the more they like him. His familiarity ratings are lower than the other candidates so there is more room for him to grow.
  • More time means more mistakes are likely by current leaders Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. After the NAACP forum, Clinton and Edwards discussed the need to eliminate other candidates because they are "not serious" is a classic example of a campaign blunder.

Apparently, I'm not as crazy as I seem. ;-)